Sunday, March 16, 2014

Final NCAA Tournament seedings

NCAA Matchup Projections.
1. Florida
16. Wofford
8. Kansas State
9. Colorado
5. North Carolina
12. BYU/Green Bay
4. San Diego State
13. Tulsa
6. St. Louis
11. Stanford
3. Louisville
14. Lafayette
7. Texas
10. Iowa
2. Virginia
15. Eastern Kentucky

1. Arizona
16. Cal Poly/Texas Southern
8. George Washington
9. Oklahoma State
5. UConn
12. Harvard
4. Syracuse
13. Manhattan
6. Kentucky
11. Dayton
3. Iowa State
14. New Mexico State
7. UMass
10. Pittsburgh
2. Wisconsin
15. Weber St.

1. Wichita State
16. Coastal Carolina
8. Gonzaga
9. Oregon
5. New Mexico
12. North Dakota St.
4. Michigan State
13. Delaware
6. VCU
11. Nebraska
3. Creighton
14. Mercer
7. Oklahoma
10. Arizona State
2. Michigan
15. UW-Milwaukee

1. Villanova
16. Albany/Mt. Saint Mary's
8. Baylor
9. St. Joseph's
12. Stephen F. Austin
4. Cincinnati
13. Western Michigan
6. Ohio State
11. Tennessee/Xavier
3. Duke
14. NC Central
7. Memphis
10. Providence
2. Kansas
15. American

Last 4 in: Tennessee, BYU,  Xavier, Green Bay
Last 4 out: SMU, Southern Miss, California, Florida State

Monday, March 10, 2014

NCAA Seeding 1.0

Usually have seedings out during the first week of March. Decided to wait until Championship week this year. Here's the first look at it.

1. Florida
1. Arizona
1. Wichita State
1. Villanova
2. Kansas
2. Wisconsin
2. Michigan
2. Virginia
3. Syracuse
3. Duke
3. Creighton
3. Iowa State
4. Cincinnati
4. San Diego State
4. Michigan State
4. Louisville
5. North Carolina
5. St. Louis
5. Oklahoma
5. Ohio State
6. UConn
6. UMass
6. Memphis
6. Texas
7. VCU
7. New Mexico
7. Kentucky
8. George Washington
8. Baylor
8. Kansas State
8. Gonzaga
9. Oregon
9. Iowa
9. SMU
9. Colorado
10. Oklahoma State
10. Arizona State
10. Dayton
10. Nebraska
11. St. Joe's
11. Stanford
11. Pitt
11. Tennessee
11. BYU
12. Xavier
12. California

12. Southern Miss
12. Toledo
12. North Dakota State
13. Harvard
13. Stephen F. Austin
13. Manhattan
13. Delaware
14. Eastern Kentucky
14. Georgia State
14. Boston University
14. Mercer
15. UC Irvine
15. North Carolina Central
15. Robert Morris
15. Utah Valley
16. Stony Brook
16. Wofford
16. Weber State
16. Wright State
16. Coastal Carolina
16. Alabama State

Monday, December 30, 2013

Midseason Predictions

With the conference season set to begin this week, or already underway in some cases, here's a look at who has the best shot at an automatic bid in each conference.

Preseason: St. Louis/VCU. 
Midseason: SLU/VCU/UMass. St. Louis and VCU have been as good as advertised and look a lot like tournament teams at this point, but UMass has joined what looked to be a two-team race thanks to an 11-1 start to the season.

Preseason: Louisville. 
Midseason: Louisville. The Cardinals still are the pick in the American at 11-2. Memphis and UConn will contend, but Louisville is the best team in the league and will have a good chance to return to the Final Four.

Preseason: Duke.
Midseason: Syracuse. The Orange have passed up Duke and would be in line for a No. 1 seed heading into the conference season. Syracuse's zone usually causes problems for teams unfamiliar with it, which should work to their benefit as they make their way into their first ACC season.

American East
Preseason: Stony Brook.
Midseason: Stony Brook.  The Seawolves are the only team entering the conference schedule above .500 and have done nothing to lose their status as the preseason faves.

Atlantic Sun
Preseason: Mercer. 
Midseason: Mercer. The Bears have only expanded the gap between the rest of the league, entering at 9-4 including a win over bubble team Mississippi.

Big 10
Preseason: Michigan State. 
Midseason: Ohio State. The Spartans will still be a threat to win the Big 10, but the Buckeyes (along with Wisconsin) enter conference play unbeaten and have inched past MSU to this point.

Big 12
Preseason: Kansas. 
Midseason: Oklahoma St. The Cowboys were a close second to Kansas entering the year and have gotten off to the better start at 11-1. The Jayhawks have three early season losses, and while none will look bad on the resume come tourney time, that's just too many at this point in the year.

Big East
Preseason: Georgetown. 
Midseason: Villanova. This was an open race from the start of the year and with 11 straight wins to begin the season, the Wildcats will enter the conference slate as the team to beat. Creighton and Georgetown look to have the best chance of finish ahead of Nova.

Big Sky
Preseason: Weber State. 
Midseason: Montana. The Grizzlies and The Wildcats came into the year as the top two teams, but Montana passed up Weber with a better non-conference performance. This conference still has a long way to go though if it wants to avoid a No. 16 seed.

Big South
Preseason: Charleston Southern.
Midseason: Charleston Southern. The Bucs haven't been great in the non-conference, but they're still looking like the best in a bunch of bad teams. No. 16 seed for whoever wins this.

Big West
Preseason: UC Santa Barbara.
Midseason: UC Santa Barbara. Defense looked to be the Gauchos ticket to the tournament, but the team's been really solid offensively and established themselves as a the favorites entering the muddled Big West conference season.

Preseason: Drexel.
Midseason: Drexel. The Dragons are still a slightly better team over Delaware in this league, but it will come down to the conference tournament since neither has a chance at an at-large bid.

Conference USA
Preseason: Southern Miss. 
Midseason: USM, La. Tech.  Southern Miss has been good all year, but Louisiana Tech has been up to the task and make it a two-team race heading into the conference season.

Horizon League
Preseason: Wright State.
Midseason: Green Bay. Wright State's defense looked to give them the best chance in this league and while it's been good, the Raiders have been putrid offensively. At 9-3, the Phoenix have set themselves apart from the rest of the league.

Ivy League
Preseason: Harvard. 
Midseason: Harvard. Still the best team in the league, although Princeton has had a good season and may pose a threat in conference play.

Preseason: Manhattan. 
Midseason: Manhattan. The Jaspers are sitting at 9-2 and still look like the class of the MAAC after winning their opening two conference games.

Preseason: Akron. 
Midseason: Toledo. Akron has struggled scoring this year, opening the door for the Rockets, who's only loss is to Kansas, to take the pole position.

Preseason: NC Central. 
Midseason: NC Central. The MEAC look destined for a No. 16 seed, but NC Central gives the league a chance of getting off that bottom line after starting 9-3.

Preseason: Wichita State. 
Midseason: Wichita State. The Shockers are looking like one of the best teams in the country and could make another run at the Final Four. Bubble teams will be rooting hard for the Shockers to win this conference tournament, because they appear to be the only team in the at-large running.

Mountain West
Preseason: New Mexico. 
Midseason: San Diego St.  The Lobos will still have a solid chance to win the league, but the Aztecs have had the better season to date at 10-1, with their lone loss coming to top-ranked Arizona.

Preseason: Wagner. 
Midseason: Bryant. Wagner has been nowhere near as good offensively as projected prior to the year. Bryant isn't great by any means, but they've been the best in this league so far.

Preseason: Belmont. 
Midseason: Belmont. No difference here. Belmont is clearly the best team in the league, but will need to win its conference tournament to get a bid.

PAC 12
Preseason: Arizona. 
Midseason: Arizona. The Wildcats have been even better than anticipated, sitting at 13-0 and currently the No. 1 ranked team in the country. They'll be looking to get a top seed come March.

Patriot League
Preseason: Boston U.
Midseason: Boston U. The Terriers have started 7-5 and been above average on offense and defense, so they'll keep their spot as the team to beat over Bucknell.
Preseason: Kentucky. 
Midseason: Kentucky/Florida. The Wildcats have had some tough losses, while Florida has been a little better than expected. Both teams look like they could end up in the No. 2/3 seed range.

Preseason: Davidson. 
Midseason: Elon. Davidson (4-8) entered the year as the clear favorites, but have been really inconsistent, and Elon has played all right at times and should be the class of the league unless the Wildcats can turn the season around in conference play.

Preseason: Stephen F. Austin. 
Midseason: Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks are among the slowest paced teams in country and the style has worked for them, winning 10 of 12 to start the year.

Summit League
Preseason: Denver/NDSU. 
Midseason: North Dakota State. The Bison set themselves apart from Denver, mostly because of the Pioneers road woes. Denver is 3-5 away from home and to get to the dance, they'd have to win the conference tournament, which is played outside of Colorado.

Sun Belt
Preseason: Georgia State. 
Midseason: Louisiana Lafayette. The Rajin' Cajuns have moved past Georgia State this season, in large part due to the Panthers defense. It was expected to be serviceable, but Georgia State has struggled to get stops all season.

Preseason: Southern. 
Midseason: Southern. A No. 16 seed awaits whoever wins this conference tournament. No team is over .500 to this point in the year.

Preseason: New Mexico State.
Midseason: New Mexico State. The Aggies still look like a good team and still have the best chance of any team in the country to be undefeated in conference play. They'll be close to double digit favorites in every game.

Preseason: Gonzaga.
Midseason: Gonzaga. This conference is going to preseason form. The Zags have one of the best offenses in the country, while BYU and St. Mary's are firmly on the bubble.

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Preseason Projections

College basketball is in for one of its most exciting seasons in a long time with the best crop of incoming freshmen in the one and done era along with a bunch of teams changing conferences.

Here's a look at who has the early pole position in their conferences:

A10: St. Louis/VCU. These two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of the conference. The Billikens might be a notch better defensively, but it's really 1A and 1B. Both will be in the tourney barring any catastrophic injury.

AAC: Louisville. The old Big East should be the defending National Champs for the taking. UConn, Memphis and Cincinnati will give them a fight, but Louisville is the front runner.

ACC: Duke. The new look ACC will have six or seven teams in the tournament, but the Blue Devils with No. 2 recruit Jabari Parker are the most likely to emerge on top.

American East: Stony Brook. The Seawolves are the best defensive team in the league, but will have to fight off Albany and Vermont for the autobid.

Atlantic Sun: Mercer. The Bears and Florida Gulf Coast will likely meet up in the title game for this conference's autobid. Rest of the league isn't very good.

Big 10: Michigan State. The Spartans are really good, experienced and deep. Should be in the top 5 all year and will be fighting for a No. 1 seed. Michigan and Ohio State will be there if Sparty slips up for any reason.

Big 12: Kansas. There's a reason why half a dozen NBA teams have thrown in the towel this season and that's Andrew Wiggins. Oklahoma State will be right there all year with the Jayhawks, but Kansas should have the talent to outlast the Cowboys.

Big East: Georgetown. The Hoyas are the slightest of favorites in the new Big East, but it's really a six-team race with Villanova, Marquette, Creighton, St. John's and Providence all having some chance of coming out on top.

Big Sky: Weber State. The Wildcats, along with Montana, are the only slightly above average teams in the league and should play for the autobid. This league is among the worst though and will struggle to get anything better than a No. 15 seed.

Big South: Charleston Southern. Another bad league with just one or two average teams. Will come down to the conference tournament and any of six teams could come out on top.

Big West: UC Santa Barbara. The Gauchos are solid on defense, but this league is a complete crapshoot. Seven teams could win this conference.

CAA: Drexel. The Dragons are the slight favorites in a four-team race that includes Delaware, Charleston and Towson.

Conference USA: Southern Miss. Memphis has moved to the AAC which opens up this league for the first time in about a decade. The Golden Eagles are above average both offensively and defensively, but five or six teams behind them are capable of pulling an upset in the conference tournament and stealing the autobid.

Horizon League: Wright State. This league sets up a three-team race between Wright State (best defense), Valparaiso (best offense) and Wisconsin-Green Bay (best balance). I'll take the defense in this one, but any of the three could be in the tournament.

Ivy League: Harvard. The Crimson won in the first round of the NCAA tournament last year and will be even better this year. Really tough to see them losing more than one or two games in the conference.

MAAC: Manhattan. The Jaspers are the best defensive team in a league with four or five really good offensive teams and that should be the difference in this conference.

MAC: Akron. Defense again the difference in this league. Akron, Toledo, Kent State and Ohio could all come out with the bid, but the Zips have the best offensive and defensive balance.

MEAC: NC Central. A really, really bad league. Might be the worst offensive conference in the entire country. Doesn't really matter who comes out, they'll be a No. 16 seed.

MVC: Wichita State. With Creighton's move to the new Big East, the Shockers are alone at the top.

Mountain West: New Mexico. Four team's will be right at the top. New Mexico, UNLV, Boise State and San Diego State should all be looking for a tournament spot come March.

NEC: Wagner. Good offense and good defense, the Seahawks are the only team in the conference with both.

OVC: Belmont. The Bruins are the clear front runner to get the bid again. The question with Belmont is if they'll finally win a game in the NCAA tournament.

PAC 12: Arizona. The Wildcats should win this conference by a game or two. Really good team that added stud freshman Aaron Gordon. The PAC 12 gets really murky after Arizona with a razor thin margin between teams No. 2-No. 8.

Patriot League: Boston U. The Terriers are newcomers to the league, moving from the American East last season and instantly become the top offensive team in the league, but everybody is pretty mediocre. Any of about seven teams could win the autobid.

SEC: Kentucky. The Wildcats have the best recruiting class in college basketball history and may have six first round draft picks. The season looks like a rerun of 2012, where the Wildcats cruised through the conference on their way to a title. Florida is the only team that is a legit threat to Kentucky in the SEC.

Southern: Davidson. The Fightin' Steph Currys are by far the best team in this league. Elon is the only team that might even be average, but the Wildcats might run through this conference undefeated.

Southland: Stephen F. Austin. Three average teams (SFA, Oral Roberts and Northwestern State) will fight for this league title. None of them really stand out on paper.

Summit League: Denver/NDSU. You can flip a coin between Denver and North Dakota State. Either team could be a March Madness sleeper in that No. 13-No. 14 range.

Sun Belt: Georgia State. The bracket always seems to fall apart in this conference and it's easy to see why. There are about eight or nine mediocre teams and one or two bad ones. The Panthers are by far the best on offense and that will get them the regular season title, but in a one and done spot, their defense could let them down.

SWAC: Southern. This is the worst conference in the country. Southern is okay. Texas Southern and Jackson State might not be awful. Everybody else is really, really bad. Pencil in whoever for a No. 16 seed.

WAC: New Mexico State. This conference has completely disintegrated over the past couple of seasons. The Aggies are a good team and probably have the best chance of any team in the nation to go undefeated in conference play. There is no bigger preseason favorite to win their conference than NMSU.

WCC: Gonzaga. The Bulldogs will win the league and make the tournament. BYU and St. Mary's will be on the bubble and may join them. Same as last year.

Sunday, March 17, 2013

Final Bracketology

1 seeds: Indiana, Louisville, Duke, Kansas
2 seeds: Gonzaga, Georgetown, Miami, New Mexico
3 seeds: Ohio State, Michigan State, Florida, Kansas State
4 seeds: Michigan, Marquette, Oklahoma State, Syracuse
5 seeds: Wisconsin, Arizona, UNLV, St. Louis
6 seeds: Notre Dame, VCU, UCLA, Memphis
7 seeds: North Carolina, Butler, Pittsburgh, Creighton
8 seeds: Colorado State, San Diego State, Oregon, Illinois
9 seeds:  NC State, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Missouri
10 seeds: California, Iowa State, Villanova, Colorado
11 seeds: Oklahoma, Temple, Boise State, Ole Miss
12 seeds: Wichita State/La Salle, Mid Tennessee St./St. Mary's, Belmont, Akron
13 seeds: Bucknell, Valparaiso, South Dakota State, Davidson
14 seeds: Northwestern State, Montana, New Mexico State, Harvard
15 seeds: Florida Gulf CoastIona, Pacific, Albany
16 seeds: Western Kentucky, Southern, Long Island/North Carolina A&T, James Madison/Liberty

Last 4 in:  Wichita State, La Salle, Middle Tennessee State, St. Mary's

Last 4 out: Tennessee, Virginia, Baylor, Maryland

1. Indiana vs. 16. James Madison/Liberty
8. Oregon vs. 9. NC State
5. St. Louis vs. 12. St. Mary's/Middle Tennessee State
4. Marquette vs. 13. Valparaiso
6. Notre Dame vs. 11. Ole Miss
3. Kansas State vs. 14. Northwestern State
7. Creighton vs. 10. Colorado
2. Miami vs. 15. Albany

1. Louisville vs. 16. Long Island/North Carolina A&T
8. San Diego State vs. 9. Minnesota
5. Arizona vs. 12. La Salle/Wichita State
4. Oklahoma State vs. 13. Davidson
6. VCU vs. 11. Oklahoma
3. Michigan State vs. 14. New Mexico State
7. Pittsburgh vs. 10. California
2. New Mexico vs. 15. Florida Gulf Coast

1. Kansas vs. 16. Southern
8. Colorado State vs. 9. Missouri
5. Wisconsin vs. 12. Akron
4. Syracuse vs. 13. Bucknell
6. UCLA vs. 11. Temple
3. Ohio State vs. 14. Montana
7. North Carolina vs. 10. Iowa State
2. Georgetown vs. 15. Iona

1. Duke vs. 16. Western Kentucky
8. Illinois vs. 9. Cincinnati
5. UNLV vs. 12. Belmont
4. Michigan vs. 13. South Dakota State
6. Memphis vs. 11. Boise State
3. Florida vs. 14. Harvard
7. Butler vs. 10. Villanova
2. Gonzaga vs. 15. Pacific

Friday, March 15, 2013

Bracketology 2.3

Lastest seed updates
1 seeds: Indiana, Duke, Louisville, Kansas
2 seeds: Gonzaga, Georgetown, Michigan State, Miami
3 seeds: New Mexico, Florida, , Kansas State, Ohio State
4 seeds: Michigan, Marquette, Wisconsin, Syracuse,
5 seeds: Oklahoma State, Arizona, UNLV,  St. Louis
6 seeds: Notre Dame, Butler, VCU, UCLA
7 seeds: Colorado State, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Creighton
8 seeds: San Diego State, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Illinois
9 seeds:  Oregon, Minnesota, California, Missouri,
10 seeds: Cincinnati, Iowa State, Villanova, Temple,
11 seeds: Oklahoma, Colorado, Boise State, Wichita State
12 seeds: La Salle/Ole Miss, St. Mary's/Kentucky, Belmont, Akron
13 seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Bucknell, Valparaiso, South Dakota State
14 seeds: Davidson, Montana, New Mexico State Harvard
15 seeds: Florida Gulf CoastIona, Vermont, Pacific
16 seeds: Western KentuckyJames Madison, Long Island/Morgan State, Southern/Liberty

Last 4 in: La Salle, Ole Miss, St. Mary's,  Kentucky,

Last 4 out: Tennessee, Virginia, Baylor, Maryland

Next 4 out:  UMass, Alabama, Middle Tennessee State, Southern Miss

Monday, March 11, 2013

Bracketology 2.2

No seed changes after Monday's games.
Western Kentucky and James Madison enter the bracket after securing automatic bids. Gonzaga, Iona and Davidson lock in their spots as well by winning their conference tournaments.
St. Mary's loss to Gonzaga doesn't hurt them, but it will be an anxious week for the Gaels as bubble teams around them will have the opportunity to knock SMC out by adding a few quality wins.

1 seeds: Indiana, Duke, Louisville, Kansas
2 seeds: Georgetown, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Miami
3 seeds: New Mexico, Michigan, Florida, Marquette
4 seeds: Ohio State, Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
5 seeds: Wisconsin, UNLV, Syracuse, St. Louis
6 seeds: Butler, VCU, Colorado State, Notre Dame
7 seeds: Memphis, UCLA, Pittsburgh, Creighton
8 seeds: San Diego State, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Carolina State
9 seeds: Illinois, California, Missouri, Cincinnati
10 seeds: Oklahoma, Villanova, Temple, Colorado
11 seeds: Oregon, Boise State, Iowa State, La Salle
12 seeds: Wichita State/Kentucky, St. Mary's/Tennessee, Belmont, Akron
13 seeds: Louisiana Tech, Stephen F. Austin, Bucknell, Valparaiso
14 seeds: South Dakota State, Davidson, Montana, Harvard
15 seeds: Florida Gulf Coast, Iona, Vermont, Long Beach State
16 seeds: Western Kentucky, James Madison, Long Island/Norfolk State, Southern/Liberty

Last 4 in: Wichita State, Kentucky, St. Mary's, Tennessee

Last 4 out: Virginia, Baylor, Ole Miss, Iowa

Next 4 out: Arkansas, Arizona State, Middle Tennessee State, Southern Miss

Also considered: Alabama, UMass, Providence, Maryland.