Friday, March 8, 2013

Bracketology 2.0

Midwest
1. Indiana
16. Charleston Southern/Southern
8. Oregon
9. Creighton
4. Kansas State
13. Akron
5. Colorado State
12. Middle Tennessee State
6. VCU
11. Iowa State
3. Marquette
14. Valparaiso
7. Notre Dame
10. California
2. Miami
15. Niagara

East
1. Duke
16. Robert Morris
8. San Diego State
9. Oklahoma
4. Syracuse
13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Wisconsin
12. Boise State/St. Mary's
6. St. Louis
11. Villanova
3. Georgetown
14. Davidson
7. UCLA
10. Wichita State
2. Michigan State
15. Montana

South
1. Kansas
16. Mercer/Norfolk State
8. NC State
9. Illinois
4. Ohio State
13. Louisiana Tech
5. UNLV
12. Belmont
6. Pittsburgh
11. La Salle
3. Gonzaga
14. South Dakota State
7. Minnesota
10. Cincinnati
2. Florida
15. Long Beach State

West
1. Louisville
16. Northeastern
8. North Carolina
9. Colorado
4. Arizona
13. Bucknell
5. Oklahoma State
12. Virginia/Kentucky
6. Memphis
11. Temple
3. New Mexico
14. Stony Brook
7. Butler
10. Missouri
2. Michigan
15. Princeton

Last 4 In: Boise State, St. Mary's, Virginia, Kentucky
Last 4 Out: Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, Southern Miss
Next 4 Out: UMass, Iowa, Baylor, Providence

Gonzaga is the obvious outlier in the bracket. The Zags low strength of schedule and lack of quality wins in comparison to the teams on the No. 1 and 2 seed lines hold them back. Should they win the WCC tourney they'll move up to a No. 2 seed, but historically, teams with their resume haven't scared a No. 1 seed.

Indiana and Duke are the top two teams by a solid margin. Duke won't win the ACC regular season, but Ryan Kelly has returned ,and the Blue Devils are undefeated with him in the line up. The ACC doesn't play a balanced schedule, so finishing a game behind Miami with a more difficult conference SOS won't hurt them.

The bubble is a mess right now with no teams able to keep any momentum. The SEC tournament will go a long way to decide who gets in from the Kentucky/Ole Miss/Arkansas/Tennessee group, but until then it's impossible to differentiate between these teams. All of them have gaping holes in their resumes. Kentucky is most in need of a win. Since the season ending injury to Nerlens Noel, they've struggled against any teams of note.



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